Introduction

In the United States alone, tropical cyclones have cost roughly a trillion dollars since 1980 (NCEI, 2021). Hurricanes are tropical cyclones, defined by the National Hurricane Center as a cyclone originating over tropical or subtropical waters, that has a sustained 1 minute wind speed of at least 74 mph (NHC, 2021). In the northern Atlantic Ocean, hurricanes begin as lows that develop into tropical depression, tropical cyclones, and then a hurricane. As they move north-west over the warm tropical waters, they increase in intensity. Once a hurricane reaches 30° N, it will likely start to move east. This arcing path that most hurricanes take allows them to make landfall in the U.S.A very often. While the impact of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is well-known on hurricane intensity, its impact on other factors, such as the quantity of hurricanes, is a little less clear.

As the effects of hurricanes are devastating, it is important to know what hurricanes in the past were like, so we can predict what hurricanes in the future will be like. There is a general assumption that hurricanes have become more common in recent years. One possibility that is commonly thought of is how human activity has resulted in conditions that are more favorable to hurricane formation (Donnelly et al., 2015). However, there is evidence that the apparent increase in hurricanes has actually been a result of more accurate monitoring (Knutson and Vecchi, 2011). Another suggested explanation for the increase in hurricanes is a natural, non-human induced, change in SST.

Hurricanes can give insight into the state of the ecosystem. This study will analyze hurricane patterns. This can show if there is a trend in the data, which can be compared to other data in order to make connections between different occurrences, such as SST, human activity, and increased monitoring (Knutson and Vecchi 2011). Understanding how the patterns of hurricanes change over time is important because this can allow for more preparation in the future. The cost of damages due to hurricanes can be decreased, as well as the human cost of lives lost.

While the reasons behind hurricane formation are significant, it is just as important to collect and organize the data so that it can be analyzed and help society. The National Hurricane Center archives all named tropical systems and aircraft fly through most storms which provide additional in situ measurements. The National Weather Service collects this information in order to protect life and property.

The purpose of this research is to examine the differences in hurricane patterns over the Atlantic Ocean from 1850 to the present. Qualities compared include: quantity of hurricanes, time of year in which hurricanes are most common, and severity of hurricanes. These qualities will be used to give a general understanding of how hurricanes have changed over the past 170 years and report any findings relative to the U.S.